Detailed Analysis of the Economic Implications of Postponing an Election to hold in 5 hours

Nigerians nationwide have begun counting their loss, economically, with the declaration of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu that the general elections slated for February 16-Presidnetial and Federal Legislative elections and March 2nd-Gubernatorial and State Legislative elections and have been postponed to February 23rd and March 9th respectively.

Trading in Nigeria which hinges on distribution and redistribution is one of the most affected considering the announcement of the Inspector General of Police of dawn to dusk curfew (6am-6pm) to allow citizens perform their civil responsibility.
More so, the Federal government had earlier ordered the closure of the nation’s land borders for the period of the elections; thus businesses grinded to a halt.
Following the announcement that provoked response from political big wigs in the country, airing their anger and frustration. The two Presidential aspirants accused INEC of conniving with the other to cause a delay in the polls.
The Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, President Muhammadu Buhari, expressed his ‘disappointment’ over the shifting of the election without prior notice while the Presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar said he is not dampen by the postponement of the election.
The chairman in a later address of stakeholders assert that the decision was based on ‘logistics’ reasons.
Aside the emotional response that greeted the announcement, it is crucial to examine the economic implication of a total shutdown of the country’s economy. It is jokingly said the February 16 is one of the freest Saturday in Lagos, the country’s commercial capital following the directive by the Inspector General of Police on the imposition of a dawn to dusk curfew (6am-6pm) to allow for smooth election process.
Thus, all ceremonies including marriage the most common, burial and other religious services were suspended and postponed to a later date. Little wonder the frustration and anger Lagosians had towards the announcement.
Experts have aired their opinions concerning the postponement as having negative impact on the economy, amongst such is the Vice President of National Association of Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture, (NACCIMA), Mr Tony Ejinkeonye who opined that Nigeria is set to lose billions of dollars due to the postponement of the general elections.
Mr Ejinkeonye also the Director, Business Development for Africa, Esilknet Africa Network Ltd., told News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Saturday in Abuja that the postponement would affect the economy adversely.
“It is quite unfortunate that the election was postponed. Economically, billions of naira have been lost and will be lost in the coming weeks. Industries, businesses including airlines were affected by the movement restriction. We expect also the same thing happening in the coming weeks.
“Most important effect is the perception of the international financial community. Situations like this will create panic with massive withdrawal and stoppage of funds inflow to Nigeria. I dread the effects in the stock market on Monday,” he said.
Although, Mr Ejinkeonye says it will be difficult to determine the actuality of the figure loss, the President National Association of Nigerian Traders (NANTs) Mr Ken Ukaoha said the country will lose more than #140 billion due to the postponement.
“The loss is monumental if you look at the economic consequences, essentially if you look at trading; Nigeria depends so much on daily turning of fund through distribution and redistribution of goods and commodity.
“I am telling you that with this calculation I have just down, we are losing nothing less than 140 billion naira, the shops are close, the industrialist have all sent their workers away to go and perform their civil duty, and farmers did not go to their farms because they want to exercise their franchise.”
In the same vein, another expert worry on the effect the postponed election has on foreign investment and overall financial outlook internationally. Professor of Economics at Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Prof Sheriffdeen Tella said the development would create unnecessary uncertainty in the economy and affect inflow of foreign investment.
He said the development would affect inflow of foreign investments, both portfolio and direct investments. “Uncertainty is the operating atmosphere in Nigeria, but business thrives under certainty and predictable situations” Tella said.
He further added that business successes depended not only on macroeconomic stability but also on political stability, “business that have shifted some programmes because of the elections have to start making adjustments whose outcomes may not be optimal.”